Without confirmation from BTC, the growth of altcoins can become a trap
Bitcoin remains under moderate trading pressure on Thursday, trading near the $46.3K level, which is 12.5% below Tuesday’s peak levels. At the same time, the total capitalization of the crypto market again steadily exceeded $2.1 trillion.
The share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market, the share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market
In general, the trend for a drop in the share of bitcoin in the crypto market remains, with the exception of a short period of time when altcoins collapsed after the first cryptocurrency. The share of bitcoin in the total capitalization decreased to 40.8%, the lowest since May, when the sale of altcoins temporarily reversed this trend.
The repetition of the same scenario should be feared this time.
The fall in the share of bitcoin caused by the fall in its price, rather than the outstripping growth of altcoins, repeatedly soon turned into a massive capitulation of buyers.
The most striking example of such a model we saw at the end of 2017, when BTC turned down in mid-December, its share dropped to less than a third in the following month. Then the trend turned around, and altcoins were under a prolonged sell-off. Many of the altcoins that existed then are still at an impressive distance from the record levels of January 2018.
For the crypto market, the most favorable situation is the growth of bitcoin at a slower pace than altcoins. The fall in prices for the flagship of the market risks turning into a sharp sell-off in altcoins in September.
Bitcoin is testing an important area of intersection of 50- and 200-day moving averages Bitcoin is testing an important area of intersection of 50- and 200-day moving averages
And in this case, it is worth paying special attention to the technical picture in BTC/USD.
During the sale on Tuesday, the price touched 43 thousand, where the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages intersect. And the fight for these levels is far from over. If bitcoin manages to stay above this level at the end of the week, the chances of an influx of buyers on the decline will significantly increase, which will pull up the price. In this case, altcoin positions can recover even faster, and a more significant reason will appear behind the current growth.
If BTC/USD turns out to be below its key moving averages, this may serve as a reason for a new crypto winter, repeating the situation from May 2018, when BTC, after falling under the same lines, lost more than 60% in the next 7 months, and returned to these levels only a year later. In our case, this may escalate into a drop in BTC/USD in the $22-28K area, rewriting the lows of last summer.