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The capitalization of the crypto market has increased slightly, by 0.7%, over the past seven days, showing a decline since mid-Thursday. The rebound of the crypto market after the collapse at the beginning of last week demonstrates exhaustion.

Total capitalization of the crypto market for the last 7 days Total capitalization of the crypto market for the last 7 days

The cryptocurrency greed and fear index rose to 50 on Thursday, dropping to 48 by mid-Friday. Being in the center of the range, it does not give any overbought signals, leaving room for further moderate decline.

Cryptocurrency Index of greed and fear in the center of the scale Cryptocurrency Index of greed and fear in the center of the scale

Bitcoin failed to catch on to levels above $48K. The development of pressure on the price of the first cryptocurrency from current levels will confirm the formation of a downward trend, when sharp sales begin from increasingly lower levels. In April, these were values at $60K, in May, speculative buyers capitulated, failing to push the price above $55K. In September, it was not possible to hold out even above $50K for a long time.

Among the short–term pressure factors is the quarterly expiration of futures and options with the highest concentration near the $50K level, which the bears are now fiercely defending.

Short-term traders should keep the $45K mark in focus, a failure under which can trigger a real capitulation on bitcoin. Thus, a “fire” can happen that can quickly spread to this entire sector of the market.

For Bitcoin, the $45,000 mark looks critically important For Bitcoin, the $45,000 mark looks critically important

The pressure on bitcoin, however, is not limited to technical or speculative factors alone. S&P warned of “immediate negative consequences for the credit rating” of El Salvador, which last week officially made bitcoin a means of payment along with the dollar. Standard& Poors says that such actions can deprive the country of assistance programs from the IMF and increase the vulnerability of the country’s banking system. Such news worsens the perception of cryptocurrencies among institutional investors, who were the main driving force of bitcoin this year.

For ether, the short-term turning point was the $3,600 mark. Its overcoming attracted sellers who still dominate the market, lowering the price to $3,450. Here, attention should be paid to the 3000 level. Fixing below it for a top altcoin risks triggering a wave of sales across the entire spectrum of the crypto market.

Ether came under pressure after rising above $3600ether came under pressure after rising above $3600

The failure of top coins below $45 thousand for bitcoin and $ 3 thousand for ether will strengthen the comparison of the current situation with the same period in 2018, when an unsuccessful attempt to rewrite historical highs turned into a crypto winter, which not all altcoins survived.

The most disturbing thing in this case is that for cryptocurrency speculators driven by interest alone, this may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.